I had mentioned last time when we covered the Open interest before expiry, that smart money tends to move to the next month for all hedges, a few days before expiry and any big changes in Open interest on the penultimate day or even the day of expiry has to be greedy speculative money who inevitably get slaughtered.
We saw it happen last time when the market moved around the 5500 strike killing the CE writers who had built a substantial open Interest the previous day.
Let's look at what's happening at 6000 strike from the past five sessions in Sept and in Oct too.
The PE writers added more at 6000 than CE writers today in October clearly indicating that the build-up in CE OI at 6000 Sept is speculative and may not be smart money.
The range indicated by VIX formula comes to 6064-5931 for tomorrow.
5961 is the developing Value high for the month and 5947 a previous HVN which has supported price in the past.
It's doubtful whether we will see a large movement below 5961-5947
6040-6047 still remains the zone where the seller operates from and any move back to that point will be used for more selling.
In Sum, the market looks like it will auction around 6000 tomorrow.
Posts
4 comments:
Shai's post covers everything on options side for this month. Just an update on futures/rollovers...
Nifty Futures:
SEP: 1.58Cr OI down 25% (54L shares cut)
OCT: 2.2Cr OI up 25% (45L shares added) -- OI still less than 3.8-4Cr in the middle of SEP series. We will know EOD what the final rollover number will be.
Banknifty Futures:
SEP: 11.6L OI down 20% (3L shares cut)
OCT: 12.9L OI up (4L shares added to OI) -- OI is still way less than the peak of 28-29L. We will know EOD.
With 2 hours to go for expiry, we have hugged the 6000 strike .
It's been on the lower side towards 5980.
It may move up to kill the CE writers at 6000.
Suggest low risk 6000 Ce at 6 for a tgt of 15.
All or nothing trade.
Tgt done.
250 % returns in 2 hours.
Viren,
Amazing call!
Post a Comment