1. 5400PE stands out as something that's history defying. In my 12 months of tracking OI of puts/calls, I have never seen 1.14Cr OI on any put/call in the very first week of a series. The simple interpretation is 5400 put writers will defend this market. The only negative I attach to this is if put writers have done put back spread trade where they sell 5400PE & buy lower level PEs. In that case its dangerous because these put writers will cover the puts very fast if there is a very fast fall.
2. Calls at 5500/5600 are still getting added with 5500 being the resistance now. But we wont stay in the 5400-5500 range for sure. Something has to give way next week.
3. What's bullish is 5500PEs are also being added - almost 30% increase in OI this week. So upside can easily come if more 5500PEs are added and 5500CEs covered.
4. Lower levels puts addition has slowed down towards the end of this week which is reflected in the PCR reduction from 1.48 last week to 1.38 now. But still this is the first time I have seen 80-90L OI on lower level puts in the very first week of a series.
Nifty Futures:
3.4Cr OI up 2.6%
Banknifty Futures:
25L OI up 2.3%
Top Traded Index Stock Futures:
1. TATAMOTORS - OI down 3%
2. TATASTEEL - OI down 1.8%
3. SBIN - OI up 1.5%
4. UNITECH - OI down 5%
5. RELIANCE - OI up 1.7%
Some non-index stocks among top traded futures:
1. HINDPETRO - OI almost flat
2. HDIL - OI down 1.1%
3. BAJAJ-AUTO - OI up 5.6%
4. VIJAYABANK - OI up 6.2%
5. JSWSTEEL - OI flat
Top traded Options:
1. UNITECH 85CA - OI flat
2. UNITECH 80CA - OI down 16%
3. RELIANCE 1000CA - OI up 14%
4. SUZLON 55CA - OI up 47%
5. SBIN 2800CA - OI up 16%
PS: I have noticed that the top traded futures/options typically also give good trading opportunity the next day or two.
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6 comments:
Girish said,
"I have noticed that the top traded futures/options typically also give good trading opportunity the next day or two".
Agreed.
Thank you for the effort.
We'll look at each of these players on Monday morning.
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New Post.
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GIrish Bhai
Ur view on Rpower 160 CA @3.75/4.00
Sunil,
From MP chart RPOWER has gone through good balancing for last 3 weeks and now started moving up. Staying above 158 - it can attempt HVN @161.5 and then 164.
Even from OI point of view some short covering has happened with OI reduction of about 5%
The 160CA has gone from 1.5 to 3.75 along with price rise from 152 to 158 - Most of the benefits of buying an OTM (out of money) call have been already enjoyed by buyers at 152-155 levels.
Now the price will move similar to futures because 160 is just 2 points away. Your best case scenario would be that you buy on Monday and the stock crosses 160-161 same day and you book out.
The danger with this option is if RPOWER can't cross HVN @164, the price of this option will start decaying from next week.
Thanx Girish
Hi Girish,
What would your views on HPCL..?
It's fallen 4% last week.
Asri,
In general Oil Marketing companies have generated very good trading interest in last couple of months. May be they are going through some consolidation.
From MP chart HINDPETRO - Only below 501-503, it can slip to 476. Above 539 one can go long with SL @534.
When tracking HINDPETRO also track BPCL because they have very similar charts.
BPCL on the MP chart shows P-shaped profile on Monthly time frame. Above 785 - its a long with SL@770 or 775. Below 740 it can slip to 700.
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