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Monday, January 23, 2012
Thursday, January 19, 2012
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
Monday, January 16, 2012
Friday, January 13, 2012
Thursday, January 12, 2012
euro/ dollar
The dollar is at an important level. This 2 year daily chart shows it as the value high of a composite structure.
Commercials would look at it as risk off in all equities once it breaks above that level.
The much maligned euro on the other hand is going downhill and firmly below value low on the 2 year scale.
Commercials would look at it as risk off in all equities once it breaks above that level.
The much maligned euro on the other hand is going downhill and firmly below value low on the 2 year scale.
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
Entering the seller's lair
The chart shows the previous highs on the left and the reactions as sellers took control of prices in this zone.
NF Composite
NF composite is trying to break out of the bal zone.
4782 is VAH for the composite and current lows. Use it to manage risk on the breakout.
Monday, January 9, 2012
Sunday, January 8, 2012
NSE McClellan Summation Index (Ratio adjusted) at EOD 07th JAN 2012
A weak divergence is seen between McClellan Summation Index (MSI) for NSE and Nifty, but not much hope for bulls as the MSI is firmly in negative and AD line is digging deeper and deeper! Here is the link for detailed information on MSI.
Friday, January 6, 2012
Thursday, January 5, 2012
Double Inside
I tweeted a while earlier on my twitter handle-
This was posted in the
trading room earlier today- [09:14] Shai : 2 ref points today- 4737 a
pull back low- mkt is negative below it & 4794 a previous HVN- mkt is positive above it.
Rolled over over for tom's session :)
Both my levels were missed by 3 points either side.
The chart above shows the two reference levels.
Following the trend day on Tuesday, we have put in two days, both within the range of the trend day.
On trend days we look out for pull back lows which is an afternoon adjustment of inventory. This usuly takes place around 1- 1.30 pm and is a good reference level for future auctions. Following the trend day the market is expected to be positive if this one level holds.This pull back low from Tuesday was 4738.
Yesterday's low in the NF was 4737 and today's low was 4740. In both cases we saw buying interest coming near this level as the buyer tried to shore up the index.
However we are also seeing that this particular buyer wasn't strong enough to take out the previous high volume node of 4794 ( shown as brown dotted line in the chart above)
So we had an interesting dilemma at the start of the session yesterday and even today- Which of these two levels would give way..
Interestingly today- none did setting up an inside day where the best strategy is to trade on exit of value and range.
Use 4737 and 4794 as reference points for the auction tomorrow.
Whilst the Nifty has done nothing over the past two days, the BN has tried to edge higher.
Notice value being created higher . I did speak about a move over 8450 reaching the high volume node of 8575 ( It made it to 8520) in the chart, but the afternoon sell off below 8450 made it to the day lows and the subsequent re-test of 8450 was rejected between 3- 3.20.
It sets it up nicely for the activity tomorrow. Bias is neutral heading into the open tomorrow . If you wait for the market to come to you and your levels, you will have a successful day out tomorrow.
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
Trend Check 03/01/02012
Nifty :
BankNifty :
In Market profile we analyze 2 things :
1) What is the buyer ( seller) trying to do?
2) Is he doing a good job doing what he is currently doing?
The charts above show the buy-sell reactions of the day.
Today's sell reactions were smaller than the buy reactions in both the NF and the BN.In other words the buyers were in control.
Hence the buy signals generated yesterday, remained.
The charts show the sell reactions to be smaller than the buy reactions, hence system remains long.
In Market profile we analyze 2 things :
1) What is the buyer ( seller) trying to do?
2) Is he doing a good job doing what he is currently doing?
The charts above show the buy-sell reactions of the day.
Today's sell reactions were smaller than the buy reactions in both the NF and the BN.In other words the buyers were in control.
Hence the buy signals generated yesterday, remained.
The charts show the sell reactions to be smaller than the buy reactions, hence system remains long.
Monday, January 2, 2012
Trader resolutions for 2012
As we begin another session trading tomorrow- here's some resolutions which if you can stick by- you will have a profitable time in 2012.
Resolution No 1 : Understand your time frame. If you are a blog hopper, or study views from different places- know what time frame is being talked about before you enter a trade on someone else's direction.Some people play for 10 points, others 50 and some others over 200. All of them at any point of time can tell you that they made a right call.
Resolution No 2 : Understand Balance and Trend. Play the small points in a balance zone and the bigger ones in a trend. Never fade a trend and don't bet too big in a balance zone.
Resolution No 3 : Recognise Break Out trades as also reversion to the mean trades.In every situation do not chase the market- let the market come to you.
Resolution No 4 : Understand trade location when you enter and exit. Observe factors like Value and previous market reference points.It's easier to understand the role of buyers and sellers if you know the trade location.
Resolution No 5 : Understand Control by different time frames.It's a bit difficult for newbies but with experience you will pick it well. Once you know control, you will automatically start to look for signs when the control is shifting.
Resolution No 1 : Understand your time frame. If you are a blog hopper, or study views from different places- know what time frame is being talked about before you enter a trade on someone else's direction.Some people play for 10 points, others 50 and some others over 200. All of them at any point of time can tell you that they made a right call.
Resolution No 2 : Understand Balance and Trend. Play the small points in a balance zone and the bigger ones in a trend. Never fade a trend and don't bet too big in a balance zone.
Resolution No 3 : Recognise Break Out trades as also reversion to the mean trades.In every situation do not chase the market- let the market come to you.
Resolution No 4 : Understand trade location when you enter and exit. Observe factors like Value and previous market reference points.It's easier to understand the role of buyers and sellers if you know the trade location.
Resolution No 5 : Understand Control by different time frames.It's a bit difficult for newbies but with experience you will pick it well. Once you know control, you will automatically start to look for signs when the control is shifting.
Sunday, January 1, 2012
Happy New year 2012
I want to thank all of you for a pretty amazing year gone by and without your support and encouragement I would not be making this post in 2012.
We have truly come a long way through the year gone by.
Here's wishing you the very best in this new year and on our part we will continue to provide you with all the necessary information relevant to the markets we trade in - all that we did in 2011 and plenty more!
Have a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous year 2012.
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