Saturday, August 27, 2011

Nifty ka Funda (1999-2011)


Posted by r m at 4:59 PM

19 comments:

POWERTRADE said...

Dear Sir,

I am not able to understand --- Can you please throw more light

August 27, 2011 at 5:06 PM
manu said...

PT: hi

u buy when pe is btwn 11-13 pe..
the eps line dosent take inflation index in to account..

rest best can be explained By sriganesh or piyush after RM paji..

Rm:...........i was amagning how much the traders who play only short must hav earned from 1999-2011 and invested as per pe..so they made money both sides..

c d red monthly bars..
thats y jhunjhunwala says that he made more money in shorting wrt to time..

anyways ..thankyou..piyush is looking for 11 pe as per neo..

August 27, 2011 at 5:14 PM
Anonymous said...

shai,
is it possible to share your analytical views on crude oil and copper? both are a breakout on upside?

August 27, 2011 at 6:25 PM
Shai said...

Thank you RM. Looking at the fundamental side once in awhile is always good even for the purists of TA's.

V2/ FDN updated.

August 27, 2011 at 6:38 PM
Shai said...

Janak, will do profile chart tom.

Surely BN will be jealous of your new found love for Commos :)

August 27, 2011 at 6:40 PM
Anonymous said...

:-) thnx shai.
I really enjoyed today's session although it was an almost dead market - but nevertheless useful.

August 27, 2011 at 6:46 PM
Shai said...

Yes, volume was in the initial few mins as traders reacted to overnight cues and adjusted their positions.

Doesn't move a lot on sat's as overseas markets are closed.

August 27, 2011 at 6:51 PM
Piyush Sharda said...

hi rm,

really nice post. amazing as always...

hi manu,
not ventured in neo. but depending on ew counts market can bottom in 4000 region. though some bearish counts can be possible till below 3000. as the prices unfold things will be more clear. once we bottom there might be one more rally and another fall which may be the end of bear market. the 5323-5229 ns gap might be unfilled for very long time.
p/e may reach 11 or may bottom at higher levels also. p/e study has also to be combined with others for better clarity. if u do a p/e study in bse in 1991-2000 there are many deviations. some very large falls(bearmarkets) have bottomed at much higher p/e. not as clearcut as 1999-2011.

August 27, 2011 at 7:12 PM
Piyush Sharda said...

manu ,
i dont think we need to take inflation in eps because it comes thru p&l of companies in earnings. the increase in earnings is partly because of inflation and partly hardwork and innovation. if we have to do benchmarking how earnings perform vis-a-vis inflation then it will be relevant.

August 27, 2011 at 7:23 PM
manu said...

shai...hi..
"I really enjoyed today's session although it was an almost dead market - but nevertheless useful."

was d room open..did u get sat. feed too ?

must hav told..


PS..my question to you will be then why eps rising..
whats the base..

hope one day depreciation is available to land than premium for Co. books..

hope u got the idea?

August 27, 2011 at 8:03 PM
Anonymous said...

will anna even affect our mkt in the same way what ben's speech did to US mkt on friday?

August 27, 2011 at 9:26 PM
manu said...

janak ..when was upper circuit done?
when india got a stable govt. for 5 years..

if anna is done it will be sure for 10 years :)

August 27, 2011 at 10:38 PM
r m said...

@PT

This chart is an attempt to keep in touch with fundamentals, the declining PE means the market is getting interesting for investors. Though how much more interesting it will become only time will tell, the historic lows are Price Earning ratio (PE) of 10 and Price to Book Value (PB) of 1.92. Right now we are at PE 17 and PB 2.8.

@manu

The current years peak EPS @ 291.1 is just 12% higher than 2008 peak EPS @ 258.4, leave aside beating inflation, it is barely able to match Saving Bank interest rate. :)

August 28, 2011 at 11:32 AM
r m said...

@Shai

Thanks for encouraging amateur wannabe traders. :)

@Piyush

Thanks, hope your trading is flourishing.

regards.
rm

August 28, 2011 at 11:45 AM
Piyush Sharda said...

hi rm,

making some progress. gaining in trending and some losses in ranging. net net some progress.

rm eps for me is coming 278.
manu,
i am not able to clearly understand
what u mean . if u cud please elaborate........

August 28, 2011 at 3:16 PM
r m said...

@Piyush

Your calculation would be accurate, I do some heraferi to force amibroker to accept PE values (feeding them in OI field which is rounded off to nearest full number). Since the EPS is plotted as Price/PE, the rounding off comes out as slight increase in EPS.

Manu is pointing out that EPS is not coming down even though PE has dropped sharply from January Highs. I have tried to explain that in comments to another post:

-----------------------
@manu
The earnings are yet to show a decline, although traders are much faster than accountants! In 2008 Nifty touched the peak in January while earnings peaked only in October. :)
-------------------------

August 28, 2011 at 3:51 PM
Piyush Sharda said...

ok rm,
i do it in xl as u explained few months ago

August 28, 2011 at 4:19 PM
POWERTRADE said...

@Manu @RM sir

Thanks a LOT

August 28, 2011 at 4:40 PM
r m said...

@powertrade

Sir na kaho hamko :)

August 28, 2011 at 4:57 PM

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