Friday, July 1, 2011

Fa revisited.

The Failed auction of yesterday completed a full cycle with an upmove of 70 points and then a revisit today.

Posted by Shai at 2:10 PM
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3 comments:

r m said...

Amazing!

July 1, 2011 at 2:22 PM
Chandra Shekhar said...

Suno dude... I got thinking about this around 5 PM. Vandana has kept good record of FA revisits but how to utilize this thing for trading. Had an idea that probabilities might help and decided to use something called conditional probability analysis. Here's a link to the sheet with conditional probs in "boxes". Basically probability of FA being visited if "not done so far".

Interesting data. Prob low on day 1, 2 and day 5,6 but really high for days 3 and 4. I have never done a visual analysis of Market Profile with FA in mind but someone who can do so will be probably able to come up with good trading setups based on the same. My 2 bits are in the rightmost 2 columns in this sheet - https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0BwZ-_Q-LQaHUMjJhNGYzZjctMjIyMS00NWZkLTgyYjctNDgyZDJmNjAyZTJj&hl=en_GB

One could develop elaborate plays such as

If FA visit not done on day 1 and day 2
and Nifty already 100 points up from FA point,
then book profit on existing positional and wait for dip to re-enter
and if Nifty close to FA point,
then be ready to trade breakout of last 3 day range with tight trailing Stoploss

Has to be based on observation though. Probabilities can only tell us so much.

Enjoy.

Chandrashekhar

July 1, 2011 at 5:34 PM
Janak said...

now what? there is a bad news of RIL - stock went down 4% today - what do we have on Monday morning? US mkt up at the moment.....

July 1, 2011 at 8:14 PM

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