Today the seller showed up as expected at 5400 ( +,-) levels and promptly took the market right down.I got into a short position at 5385 on the reversal from 5397 and booked out near VAL, which I expected to hold. It did- only for an hour and I got into another short position at 5251 from which I got properly whip-sawed and made an exit at 5374.The result was also a neutral day for me.
The whip-saw is the subject of today's post and my reason to be slightly bullish on the market for tomorrow. Here's the chart :
We knew from yesterday's chart about the presence of the seller at 5395-5400 levels.From Today's chart the buying tail from 5345 shows the presence of the buyer and his intention to defend that levels. Incidentally 5345 is the break-out level from a few days back.
I have often twisted James Dalton's question quoted in my post here (and with due apologies to him) to find out a bit more about the buyer and seller. I often find myself asking during the trading day:
What is the Buyer (seller) doing?
Is he doing a good job in his attempts to take the market his way?
The seller had his chance to drive the market down today and failed ( besides causing me losses). We have noted earlier that his actions have been only responsive.
The buyer managed another higher close in value.He will take on the seller now at 5400 levels and I expect him to win this time around. This should point to a print of price above 5400 levels tomorrow.
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15 comments:
GM All.
Buyer at 5345-5350 put to the test in early morning trade.
I'm looking for the buyer to step in now and take price through the open and to VAH.
Currently at 5350.
Hi Viren,
Advantage Buyer? is a very bold statement.
5250-5400 looks good to hold.
Hi Shai.
Gd to see you back. Hw was your trip?
" Advantage Buyer " yes. Looks like I'm a loner in the blogosphere today.Everybody else calling for a pull-back.
I think you want to mention "5350-5400".
Dear Viren,
Since morning onwards NIFTY FUT trading below VAL of 5368.. It should favour of short position or whats your call from this level?
Thanks,
Ramesh.
Dear Viren..
taken short based on NIFTY FUT trading below 5368 and now i am in confuse whether to exit or not..
NIFTY FUT trading in hug premium telling us there is buyers are in intersted and europ may open down and if NIFTY trades below 5345 for some more time then i may be safe..
Dear Viren,
Need yoru inputs at this level.. can we ride our shorts or its better to book profit before any bounce?
Book out some shorts at 5320 levels.
Trail renmaining to 5347.
Bought some longs at 5325 and will buy balance at 5312.Sl 5304.
Covered my shorts@5320.40..
Thanks Viren, I respect your VAH, POC, VAL concept and based on that VAL and Ilango sell call in pre-market view,,,, i have initited shorts@5367 and booked completly@5320.40(Which my trailing SL) by expecting some bounce at Day LEMA..
But today i did not understand why you favour to BUYERS though FUTURE completly trading far below VAL 5368..
Can you explain whats the hidden thing in that?
Ramsfm,
In hindsight and as Shai correctly pointed out earlier, it was indeed a bold statement.
The move which is happening today I was expecting yesterday and the failure of it led me to believe that sellers were backing off..hence buyer advantage.
Taken long@5320.05 along with you by expecting some bounce of 15 to 20 points by taking support at DAY LEMA
Sl taken. make an exit.
My sl also taken out@5309 and converted onto short side again@5312 immediatly and holding now
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